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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly acts as a type of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct line: the skipper who oversaw the biggest improvement is handed the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or just the most shocking upset.

But this year's race is fundamentally unique. The list of candidates is unusually talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with recent division winners fading and recent also-rans improving together. Under an normal season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this wild and entertaining year, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.

This is how the ideal vote could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his special talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that frees wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to conjure magic out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical year, he would be the runaway choice. But this is not a normal year!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a given following his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an initial hot start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of peers.

Still